Sunday, February 5, 2017

Quick UK projection

I've been tinkering with this map that Kyle of Blunt Objects sent me, and I've applied a projection of sorts to it.

This map shows the 600 new constituencies that are supposed to be used in the 2018 election.

To this map I've applied my a projection of the next election with a few caveats.

First, The balance between Labour and Conservative is a straight up projection. In short, I've used real polls and math here with my own adjustment for how I feel the results will play out (I've adjusted Labour way up in London and way down elsewhere)
However, I've also boosted the strength of all the smaller parties. Liberal-Democrat, UKIP, Green, even the Ulster Unionists, all see a boost in vote compared to current polling. While the Tories retain a majority, this is designed to show you what areas are susceptible to victories by these smaller parties, and not indicative of certain wins by UKIP et al.

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