PEI polls

I recently responded to a tweet regarding some headlines over recent polls in PEI by saying that both headline options - one saying the Liberals maintain their lead, the other saying they've dropped significantly, are useless. Since twitter has a very limited amount of space in which to make an argument, I wanted to do so here.

The answer is simple really. The Greens are doing extraordinarily well.

I want to start by contrasting the current Green numbers with NDP numbers from the past.


Now I have access to polls going back to 2006. I also lived in PEI and ran for the PEI NDP in the 2003 provincial election. I therefore have a good idea of what sorts of things polls said prior to 2006. In short, taking over 20% of the vote in a poll was rare for a party like the NDP, and while it did happen, it was both difficult to sustain, and short term.

The best poll numbers for the PEI NDP came between 1995 and 2000, starting with the Liberal decision to cut back on the wages of government workers, and ending with the loss of the NDP's only seat in the legislature.

The second period of strong NDP numbers came during the PC Party's troubles, as I noted in a blogpost I wrote over on Blunt Objects.

During this period the PEI NDP rose as high as 32% in the polls, mostly fueled by dissatisfaction with the PC Party. Once PC numbers recovered, the NDP dropped back down below 20%.

More context is that the NDP has formed governments in Nova Scotia, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia, as well as the Yukon Territory. Outside of these areas, the NDP has managed, to form the official opposition Federally, to obtain 3rd party status in New Brunswick, and Newfoundland, and to elect members to the legislature in Quebec, as the CCF.

Lastly, the NDP's member in PEI's legislature, Herb Dickieson, did indeed reach 3rd party status. He was also fairly popular island wide, and managed to take 38.4%, and 37.5% in his riding in 1996 and 2000 respectively, winning in 1996 and losing in 2000.


Now compare this to the PEI Greens.

The party's only member of the legislature is Peter Bevan-Baker. He's not yet been tested for re-election, and currently sits as the MLA.

In 2015, when he won his seat, he won with 54.8% of the vote. He is popular province-wide. He holds status as the 3rd party on PEI.

The Greens currently have single MLAs in New Brunswick, and BC, and serve as the 3rd party in both. The Greens also have a single federal MP, and have had up to two MPs at one time if counting defections.

Prior to the most recent poll, the highest the Greens ever reached was 16%, polled this past May. The party was only registered in 2006, and has no PEI polling history prior to this.


Taking both into perspective, we have a party that can and does win across Canada, VS one without such a history. We have a party that's proven it's unable to keep up momentum within PEI, VS one that has yet to prove this. We have a party with a popular leader who was defeated by the vote splits in his own riding, VS a party with a popular leader who won his riding by a majority. We also have a party that's currently 5th in the House of Commons, VS and NDP, which, during their 'bump' in 2013, were serving as the Federal Official Opposition.

In short, the Green 22% is far more significant than the NDP's 32% in August of 2013, and yet, in August of 2013, that was what the news was.


PC and Liberal support has jumped and fallen at various points over time without any long-term lasting implications. Sure, one party may overtake the other for first, but both parties seem to have a floor that is close to the ceiling of the smaller parties. Most people in PEI today expect that if the Liberals lose the next election, it will be to the PC Party.

The only notable thing about this poll is what it says about the Green Party. None of the rest of it really matters. "Liberals maintain lead" and "Liberals suffer largest recorded* drop" are equal in weight, and making only one your headline is just plain silly


*recorded on the polls below

Below is a full list of all CRA polls that I've been able to find.


Date - Lib - PC - NDP - Grn
Nov 2016 - 46 - 25 - 7 - 22
Aug 2016 - 64 - 19 - 8 - 9
May 2016 - 58 - 20 - 7 - 16
Feb 2016 - 61 - 19 - 9 - 11
Nov 2015 - 61 - 18 - 9 - 11
Aug 2015 - 46 - 22 - 18 - 14
Apr 2015 - 44 - 35 - 15 - 6
Feb 2015 - 58 - 26 - 12 - 4
Nov 2014 - 50 - 23 - 15 - 11
Aug 2014 - 48 - 26 - 16 - 7
May 2014 - 53 - 23 - 21 - 3
Feb 2014 - 53 - 17 - 22 - 7
Nov 2013 - 49 - 17 - 26 - 7
Aug 2013 - 42 - 23 - 32 - 3
May 2013 - 52 - 22 - 21 - 5
Feb 2013 - 51 - 16 - 26 - 7
Nov 2012 - 45 - 28 - 22 - 5
Aug 2012 - 42 - 32 - 18 - 8
May 2012 - 47 - 26 - 18 - 8
Feb 2012 - 50 - 33 - 11 - 5
Nov 2011 - 53 - 34 - 9 - 4
Aug 2011 - 59 - 31 - 7 - 3
May 2011 - 51 - 35 - 13 - 2
Feb 2011 - 62 - 25 - 11 - 2
Nov 2010 - 53 - 34 - 4 - 8
Aug 2010 - 61 - 30 - 6 - 2
May 2010 - 61 - 27 - 8 - 3
Feb 2010 - 64 - 26 - 6 - 4
Nov 2009 - 57 - 31 - 9 - 3
Aug 2009 - 62 - 27 - 6 - 5
May 2009 - 57 - 32 - 7 - 4
Feb 2009 - 64 - 28 - 6 - 2
Nov 2008 - 55 - 31 - 8 - 5
Aug 2008 - 63 - 25 - 6 - 6
May 2008 - 61 - 27 - 7 - 4
Feb 2008 - 68 - 22 - 6 - 4
Nov 2007 - 65 - 25 - 5 - 5
Aug 2007 - 64 - 25 - 7 - 3
May 2007 - 52 - 42 - 3 - 4
Feb 2007 - 44 - 48 - 6 - 2
Nov 2006 - 45 - 43 - 8 - 4
Aug 2006 - 48 - 44 - 7 - 1
May 2006 - 46 - 44 - 8 - 2
Feb 2006 - 41 - 51 - 4 - 3