Sunday, November 13, 2016

A few quick notes

A few point-form thoughts from the last few days.

1 - Marine LePen is likely to win the Presidential elections in France. Not because Trump won, but because the polls said he would not win. I feel the polls in France are also "wrong" and by the same degree; about 4 or 5 points, and that is often all she needs to win.

2 - The AfD in Germany, for the same reasons, could top 20% in the election, or more. They still won't win, but they could push the sitting coalition to a minority. The problem for them, is the only way to push them into a minority is by failing to knock the Liberals out (IE below the threshold) and if that happens, the Liberals are simply likely to sit in the coalition, or, at least, support a good chunk of it from outside the official coalition.

3 - I've always added a personal "gut correction" to the polls, and it's one reason I'm more accurate than others who do projections. I will now add a "trump correction" to properly account for poor working class voters who feel they can't honestly say who they are voting for". This will be applied across the western world.

4 - There are likely to be challenges to Trump's win. People are already suggesting hacking of voting machines. I've taken a look at the results, and the results better match demographics than they do whether or not the county uses voting machines or paper ballots. Regardless, I don't expect any of these challenges to be successful, and, even if they somehow are, it would only push the election to the house, which, given the real election results, is very likely to back Trump.

5 - Similar to points 1 and 2, I expect other "European" elections, like the Netherlands, to see an increase in the vote for "far-right" parties.

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