538 recently put out this article
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/?ex_cid=538twitter
Explaining how they screwed up predicting Donald Trump's rise.
While I tend to steer clear of US politics (the US has less of a political system and more of a personality system) I also made a terrible but similar mistake; but with Bernie Sanders.
While my error was not recorded on the blog, it was still something I said quite often, that Sanders has no hope in hell of winning.
While I encourage everyone to read the article linked above, I have taken one important note out of the victories of people like Rob Ford:
Voters these days are far more willing to accept an extremist candidate than they were just a decade or two ago.
I mean, Bernie basically doesnt have a chance of winning, or if there is one ifs infinitesimally small. Or did you assume he would win Vermont and nothing else?
ReplyDeleteAlso I disagree with that assessment of American politics. Much is influenced by personality, yes, but there is also a lot involved in terms of balancing demographics and interest groups in order to secure votes.
"vermont and maybe new hampshire"
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