Projection using new data

I've been able to grab 2015 election data and use a poll released just today, to do a one-poll projection. It is as follows.

Numbers:
278 - Lib
45 - CPC
9 - NDP
3 - GRN
3 - BQ

Newfoundland - final projection (election monday)

Based on new polling data

Where things really are, Federally.

A new poll is out by Forum. I won't link to it because it does not contain the data you'd normally expect; this one focuses more on approval of the various leaders. However, it does help focus things slightly; as a result, I have a new "projection" as to where things stand at this time politically.

This gives us 276 Liberals, 45 Tories, 15 NDP, 1 Bloc, and 1 Green.

Political Parties and Accountability; NWT election.

I will now cover the Northwest Territories election, in full:

"There was an election today"

One problem is that, unlike what people think, there was not a "Northwest Territories Election" today, there were 19 different elections that all happened to be held on the same day.

There is an idea, up north, that one should have a consensus government. It's a good idea, frankly, that a government should be based on the feelings of all MLAs, and not just some of them. However, there is a problem.

Accountability.

Incumbents have been defeated, and this does indicate a "vote against the government" - or does it? Watching the coverage, it's quite clear that nobody has a flying clue who the hell will be Premier. Is that democracy? I strongly feel it is not.

NWT voters have been robbed of their chance to "vote out a government". They may have done so, maybe the Premier won't be re-elected in the new legislature, but who knows. Certainly not me, certainly not any of the CBC panel discussing the election, and certainly not the voters.

As such, this is all I really have to say on the NWT election at this time. I will address it more in depth closer to the USA election, and use the dysfunctional congress as the perfect example of what happens when you lack accountability in elections.

Hong Kong Locals

Just a quick post about local elections in Hong Kong. You can view the results here.

In short, not much has changed in terms of balance between democrats and pro-beijing forces. However, there was some re-balancing within these forces with each managing to knock off some leaders from the other.

Perhaps more importantly is the more radical pro-democracy forces have done rather well, while the moderates have seen losses.

How this will play out remains to be seen.

Patreon goal - which 100

In my goal at Patreon, I say that I'd like to cover 100 countries and provinces; but you may wonder which ones?

The reality is I already plan to cover them. Many of them are provinces. They are...

PROVINCES
States and Territories of Australia (8)
Lander of Germany (16)
UK subdivisions; Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and London (4)
Provinces and Territories of Canada (13)
Hong Kong (1)

COUNTRIES
Canada (1)
EU members (28)
Plus the EU itself (1)
Non-EU "western" neighbours (3) *Norway, Iceland, Switzerland
Non-EU "balkan" neighbours (6)
Israel and Palestine (2)
Japan (1)
South Korea (1)
Russia (1)
Indonesia (1)
Singapore (1)
Thailand (1)
Iran (1)
Iraq (1)
India (1)
Pakistan (1)
Taiwan (1)Ukraine (1)
Turkey (1)
Egypt (1)
Myanmar (1)
Mexico (1)

Philippines (1)

Ghana (1)

South Africa (1)

You'll notice, however, some of them had elections recently that I did not cover, at least, not here. The reality is with only 20 people reading it, I can get more exposure posting my analysis of some of this stuff at random discussion forums. The pledges will force me - morally - to post it here as well, and as such, make the blog much better.'

You'll also notice the US is not on this list. There is a good reason for that, one I will outline in my next post.

We have a Patreon

Just letting everyone know that I've set up a Patreon for the entire "Teddy On Politics" 'empire'.
http://www.patreon.com/TeddyOnPolitics
I still do plan to do videos, but things have been held back due to what seems to be a lack of interest.
I have about 20 unique readers. That number, however, may be higher; I don't know what impact adblock has on it, and if it does have an impact, frankly and bluntly, that means I am not included as a reader!

I have, however, heard from people who follow me religiously; and it gave me the idea that perhaps I may not have many followers, but they may be super-fans.

As a result, I've decided to open a Patreon so that these people could thrown in a dollar or two towards convincing me to make more and better posts.

Newfoundland Projection - 38 Liberals

I've highlighted the seats that could be won by other parties if the Liberals do worse than expected.

Insane election projection

308 recently covered a recent poll.

I've turned those numbers into a projection.

Caucus

Given that the Tories still group both MPs and Senators into their caucus, while the Liberals do not; I decided to total and compare the various caucuses on Parliament Hill.

Note that the Bloc, Greens, and other such, will not appear as they do not have enough members to make up a caucus.

Nearly all MP's are confirmed

Under a dozen to go!

Note that my next update will skip the provinces or maps with all MPs confirmed (Alberta, Rest of Quebec, etc)

Newfoundland "Safety Projection"

Given it's actually quite possible the NL Liberals will win all 40 ridings, I've decided to make a "Safety Projection"

In short, none of the ridings that are Liberal on this map should be won by another party, but, some, many, or all of the non-Liberal ridings could be won by Liberals easily.

Newfoundland Projection

Due to this being a smaller province, this is a "lite" projection. As such, there will likely be many errors.

Confirmed MPs

Another map of confirmed MPs.

Here is a count
172 - LIB
80 - CPC
33 - NDP
10 - BQ
1 - GRN
42 - Unconfirmed (includes all recounts)

Numbers written on each map indicate the number of ridings unconfirmed for each party, based on validated results from Elections Canada.

It may not reflect final results if a recount overturns any wins. 

Cabinet map

Simply, a map showing the ridings of all Cabinet members