First a quick note: I've done some mild research, and leadership polls in Canada are useless more than a month or two out. With the Conservative leadership not expected to be decided until time some in 2017, that means we should take polls with a grain of salt. Patrick Brown in particular polled very poorly in early polls (despite his name being included) for the Ontario PC Party, and only took off after the leadership race really got underway.
However, there are some signs that leadership polls can indicate, in particular, they can give you a good idea of the candidates. Early polls tend to contain most of the final candidates, but they also usually miss one or two of them. As such I am refining my projection for the candidates of the CPC leadership:
Declared Candidates:
Maxime Bernier
Kellie Leitch
Candidates who have declared they will declare, but have yet to declare:
Michael Chong
Likely candidates:
Jason Kenney
Tony Clement
Peter MacKay
Possible Candidates:
Lisa Raitt
Unlikely Candidates:
Kevin O'Leary
"Dark Horse Candidates:
Doug Ford
Michelle Rempel
Gerard Deltell
Pierre Poilievre
Andrew Scheer
Call me crazy, but I don't think Kenney is going to run. I think he'll back another candidate to his liking, probably a former cabinet colleague like Leitch, Raitt or Clement, and basically become the guy behind the scenes in much the same way he was for Harper.
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